Time for Hillary to Quit?

Rating: 4 after 4 votes

Posted by carol hamel on May 6, 2008 at 11:48pm

The Reverend Wright fiasco and "bitter-gate" are but two of the issues facing Obama in the Presidential race at the present time.

As for Clinton, make no mistake about it; her task in trying to overtake Obama is daunting.

While the collapse of efforts to redo the Florida and Michigan primaries almost certainly ended her hope of narrowing Obama's lead in pledged delegates and being able to claim a majority of the popular vote when the voting is done.

But it is still not impossible. There remains at least one scenario where Clinton could win. It is an increasingly unlikely one and one that could traumatize the Democratic Party. Still, it gives hope to her supporters, and presumably Clinton herself, and is something to keep in mind watching the two of them head toward the endgame of their contest.

The electorate that matters most now are not the voters waiting to go to the polls in the 10 nominating contests that remain between now and June. Instead, it is the superdelegates - the elected officials and party leaders who have automatic status as uncommitted delegates and whose votes are needed to put either Obama or Clinton over the top.

Let's do the math.

There are 4,048 total delegates. You need 2,025 to win the nomination. Of those delegates, about 80 percent are selected in primaries and caucuses by voters, and 20 percent are the so-called superdelegates—party leaders and elected officials who get to vote by virtue of their position. As of today, Clinton and Obama are almost tied in endorsements by superdelegates, but Obama holds a lead in the elected delegates. Using the New York Times’s count, Obama has 1,735 delegates (a combined total of elected delegates and superdelegates) to Clinton’s 1,601.

What do you think?

Should the Superdlegate vote be the deciding factor or should the popular vote be what matters most?

Do you think it's time for Hillary to quit and heal the party?

Tags: race, presidential, obaama., clinton

7 Comments

Comment by Justin on May 7, 2008 at 12:44am: I think, from what I gather, that unless Clinton drops off the ticket before the next batch of primaries, then it is unlikely that Obama could gain enough pledged delegates to clinch the nomination. Therefore, it will more than likely be left up to the "superdelegates" to push either candidate over the 2025 mark, as they did in 1984 when Mondale came up just shy.

If Clinton can maintain enough in donations to keep her campaign afloat, then I assume she will stay in the race. While I would have loved this interminable primary season to be finished, I don't believe Clinton should drop out. In addition, I don't think it would be wise for the party leaders or superdelegates to push Obama over 2025 before the remaining primaries are complete. Even if he would be the nominee regardless, I think that we've gotten this far and let's give every voter a chance to vote in the primaries. Many of these voters don't come out for the primaries, because the nominee has been chosen before they have gotten the chance to vote. It would be better for the Democratic Party to get as many voters in the booths and excited before November. And for the superdelegates to decide this before Clinton has officially dropped out would only anger her large numbers of supporters.

After tonight, it certainly seems as if Obama will be the nominee, but it has seemed that way for a long time now. What's a few more weeks?

Comment by carol hamel on May 7, 2008 at 12:51am: Given the math, I don't think Hillary will be the nominee so why continue to divide the Party?
A few more weeks probably won't matter and in my view of it Hillary would be much the same old same old.

Comment by Justin on May 7, 2008 at 1:00am: Definitely a good point. Personally, this prolonged primary season has only created false controversies and allowed the media, which covers this stuff ad naseum, to inflame the divisions amongst the Democratic voters. I don't have any particularly sound reasons, if I were her campaign adviser let's say, to argue for Clinton to stay in the race, but there are a few more states to go and it does offer a chance for these candidates to travel to the remaining parts of the country, let voters get to know them more, and the continued contest brings out new voters as well. The more people voting the better as far as I'm concerned, but in the end the decision will be hers alone. And like most decisions it might actually come down to money.

Comment by Sir Andrew on May 7, 2008 at 1:06am: Why should Hillary quit? She's worked as hard as he has.

And Hillary's support demographics are much more diverse than Barack's. 30% of Hillary supporters say if she doesn't win, they're not voting. That's not going to "heal the party."

If anything, Barack "I've only had 4 years in the Senate" Obama should just bow out gracefully and go back to legislating (read: making change instead of just talking about it.)

Comment by Romain Levesque on May 7, 2008 at 1:10am: Sir Andrew I have to agree with you on that one.

Comment by carol hamel on May 7, 2008 at 5:18am: Sir Andrew you think Obama should 'bow out gracefully'...why?
I agree that Hillary has worked very hard and that her Campaign is going broke but she will raise more money. I don't think she will quit now that she won Indiana.
I too have read that some supporters of Hillary's say they "won't vote" however the risk there is that they will instead vote for McCain and where the hell would that leave us?

Comment by Vice on May 7, 2008 at 9:00am: Unfortunately, Billy Jack is correct. Hillary will continue to run even if it means the Democratic party implodes. Party unity means nothing unless she is the nominee.